PAPANDREOU’S DECISION ON 2011 BAILOUT REFERENDUM FOR GREECE - A TWO-LEVEL GAMES ANALYSIS
Mots-clés :
referendum, two-level games model, domestic politics, negotiationRésumé
This article examines through the two-level games model the case of Greek Prime Minister’s call for a referendum on the third 2011 bailout loan. It argues that the clue to understand his decision lies primarily in domestic politics. International causes played a major part but the analysis proposed here shows that the referendum was aimed at gaining negotiation leverage at Level II negotiations. The process of identifying the reasons for Papandreou’s decision to call for a referendum on the third European Union, International Monetary Fund and European Central Bank bailout agreement is conducted within the “two-level games framework” proposed by Putnam (1988) in order to assess whether the decision is better explained by constraints on Level I or Level II negotiations. The causes for his decision are identified by evaluating various options and their consequences. This paper concludes that the primary causes were of domestic kind. The referendum aimed avoiding snap elections. In addition, it sought an improvement of public support for Panhellenic Socialist Movement (PASOK) by committing the opposition to the austerity measures (in case of Parliament “no” vote on referendum) and by giving the Greek people a chance to vote on the future of the country (in case a referendum took place). The analysis employs the case-study research method and the qualitative data type. Evidence was gathered mainly from international media reports.Références
Amnon, A. (2012). Foreign Policy Analysis. New Approaches. Routledge. London.
Avent, R. 4 Mar. (2010). A Greek Drama. The Economist. available at http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2010/03/sovereign_debt [20.06.2013]
BBC news. (5 Oct. 2009). Greece’s Socialists win snap poll. BBC news. available at http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8289674.stm [10.08.2013]
Elliott, L. (1 Nov. 2011). Greek referendum. Papandreou’s Gamble could pay off. The Guardian. available at http://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2011/nov/01/greekreferendum-papandreou-canny-move [15.07.2013]
Eurostat Yearbook (2010). Europe in Figures. available at http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_OFFPUB/KS-CD-10-220/EN/KS-CD-10-220-EN.PDF [10.08.2013]
Gerring, J. (2007). Case Study Research: Principles and Practices. Cambridge University Press. Cambridge.
Granitsas, A. and Walker, M. (5 Jul. 2011). Greek Opposition Slams Tax Rises. The Wall Street Journal. available at http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303982504576425873596124768 [27.08.2013]
Hale, T. and Held, D. (eds) (2011). Handbook of Transnational Governance. Institutions & Innovations. Polity Press. Cambridge.
Hewitt, G. (23 Jan. 2012). The Greek cloud. BBC news. available at http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-16677238 [05.08.2013]
Knopf, W. (1993). Beyond the two-level games: domestic and international interaction in the intermediate-range nuclear forces negotiations. International Organization, 47 (4), 599-628.
Li, C. (2005), Two-Level Games, Issue Politicization and the Disarray of Taiwan’s Cross-Strait Policy after the 2000 Presidential Election. EAST ASIA, 22 (3), 41-62.
Lowen, M. (2 Nov. 2011). Greek referendum. BBC news. available at http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-15549352 [19.07.2013]
Mavris, G. (7 Nov. 2011). Papandreou’s referendum and public opinion. available at http://www.publicissue.gr/en/1644/refer-2011/ [10.08.2013]
Milner, H. (1997). Interests, institutions, and Information. Princeton University Press. Princeton.
NBC news. (4 Nov. 2011). Greek PM reportedly ready to step down. MSNBC World News. available at http://www.nbcnews.com/id/45144746/#.UpuPpdJdVL8 [27.09.2013]
Putnam, R. Evans, P. and Jacobson, H. (eds) (1993). Double-Edged Diplomacy: International Bargaining and Domestic Politics. University of California Press. Berkeley.
Schoppa, L. (1993). Two-Level Games and Bargaining Outcomes: Why Gaiatsu Succeeds in Japan in Some Cases but not Others. International Organization, 47 (3), 353-386.
Smith, H. (20 Oct. 2011). Greek MPs vote fresh cuts as man dies in day of street battles. The Guardian. available at http://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/oct/20/greekcuts-man-dies-street-battles [27.07.2013]
Smith, H. (6 May 2010). Greek protesters storm Acropolis. The Guardian. available at http://www.theguardian.com/business/2010/may/04/greek-protesters-storm-acropolis [11.08.2013]
Spiegel, P. (28 Oct. 2011). Greece is getting 130 euros. What for? Financial Times. available at http://blogs.ft.com/brusselsblog/2011/10/greece-is-getting-e130bn-morewhat-for/?Authorised=false [25.07.2013]
Steward, H. (6 Jan. 2012). Eurozone unemployment hits new record. The Guardian. available at http://www.theguardian.com/business/2012/jan/06/eurozone-unemployment-hits-newrecord [27.07.2013]
Tamayo, A. (2001). Two-Level Game. Analysis of the Metalclad Case. Latin American Politics and Society, 43 (4), 67-90.
The Economist. (23 Jan. 2011). If Greece goes... The Economist. available at http://www.economist.com/node/18866979 [20.07.2013]
The Economist. (3 Nov. 2011). Playing Poker with the Greeks. The Economist. available at http://www.economist.com/blogs/buttonwood/2011/11/debt-crisis [01.08.2013]
Traynor, I. (25 Jan. 2012). Angela Merkel casts doubt on saving Greece from financial meltdown. The Guardian. available at http://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/jan/25/angela-merkel-greece-financialmeltdown [20.07.2013]
Venizelos, E. (3 Nov. 2011). Discourse on the Greek Economic Crisis. available at http://www.minfin.gr/portal/en/resource/contentObject/id/28bc6ea7-c7bc-4765-bbe5-b6f9a41037da [05.08.2013]
Wearden, G. (3 Nov. 2011). Greek Crisis. The Guardian. available at http://www.theguardian.com/business/blog/2011/nov/03/greek-crisis-referendumeurozone [15.08.2013]
