MEASURING THE RISK OF DEMOCRATIC DISORDER. STATISTICAL MODEL FOR POLITICAL ENTROPY
Keywords:democracy, political entropy, internal factors, external factors risk factors, quantitative model, conditional entropy
This paper aims to introduce a new statistical measure related to the level of equilibrium and disequilibrium in democratic political systems. Following the traditional normative and empirical political theory, the paper introduces several categories related to the risk of political entropy in various democratic systems. We propose, in accordance with the Shannon entropy model, a new quantitative perspective in which we take into consideration relevant predictors of democratic stability which are theorized in political sciences. Elections, governance, civil rights and participative political culture are the core of liberal democracy. In this respect, we integrated these factors into the field of endogenous variables of democracy. External factors are represented by the level of militarization, economic dimension and interactions between political systems in the international arena. Besides the internal and external dimensions of democracy, we aim to introduce new risk factors, specific to the beginning of the XXIst century such as human and social development, online mass media, political polarization, the level of security and safety and terrorist threats. However, we propose a composite measure of the political entropy, based on conditional entropies associated with internal, external and risk factors.
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